SPARX: A modeling system for Solar Energetic Particle Radiation SpaceWeather forecasting

Abstract

The capability to predict the parameters of an SEP event such as its onset, peak flux, and duration is critical to assessing any potential space weather impact. We present a new flexible modeling system simulating the propagation of Solar Energetic Particles (SEPs) from locations near the Sun to any given location in the heliosphere to forecast the SEP flux profiles. Solar Particle Radiation SWx (SPARX) uses an innovative methodology that allows implementation within an operational framework to overcome the time constraints of test particle modeling of SEP profiles, allowing the production of near-real-time SEP nowcasts and forecasts, when paired with appropriate near-real-time triggers. SPARX has the capability to produce SEP forecasts within minutes of being triggered by observations of a solar eruptive event.
The model is based on the test particle approach and is spatially 3-D, thus allowing for the possibility of transport in the direction perpendicular to the magnetic field. The model naturally includes the effects of perpendicular propagation due to drifts and drift-induced deceleration. The modeling framework and the way in which parameters of relevance for Space Weather forecasting are obtained are described. The first results from the modeling system are presented. These resultsThese results demonstrate that corotation and drift of SEPtreams play an important role in shaping SEP flux profiles