Paranormal belief, thinking style preference and susceptibility to confirmatory conjunction errors

Abstract

This study examines the extent to which belief in extrasensory perception (ESP), psychokinesis (PK) or life after death (LAD), plus need for cognition (NFC) and faith in intuition (FI), predict the generation of confirmatory conjunction errors. An opportunity sample (n = 261) completed sixteen conjunction problems manipulated across a 2 event type (paranormal vs. non-paranormal) × 2 outcome type (confirmatory vs. disconfirmatory) within subjects design. Three Generalised Linear Mixed Models – one per paranormal belief type – were performed. With respondent gender and age controlled for, ESP, PK and LAD beliefs were all associated with the making (vs. non-making) of conjunction errors both generally and specifically for confirmatory conjunctive outcomes. Event type had no impact. Individuals high in NFC were less likely to commit the fallacy. The role thinking style plays in shaping paranormal believers’ susceptibility to confirmatory conjunction biases is discussed. Methodological issues and future research ideas are also considered.