Application of Test Particle Simulations to Solar Energetic Particle Forecasting

Dalla, Silvia orcid iconORCID: 0000-0002-7837-5780, Swalwell, Bill orcid iconORCID: 0000-0002-8411-8000, Battarbee, Markus orcid iconORCID: 0000-0001-7055-551X, Marsh, M.S, Laitinen, Timo Lauri mikael orcid iconORCID: 0000-0002-7719-7783 and Proctor, S.J. (2018) Application of Test Particle Simulations to Solar Energetic Particle Forecasting. In: Space Weather of the Helisophere: Processes and Forecasts, July 2017.

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Modelling of Solar Energetic Particles (SEPs) is usually carried out by means of the 1D focused transport equation and the same approach is adopted within several SEP Space Weather forecasting frameworks. We present an alternative approach, based on test particle simulations, which naturally describes 3D particle propagation. The SPARX forecasting system is an example of how test particle simulations can be used in real time in a Space Weather context. SPARX is currently operational within the COMESEP Alert System. The performance of the system, which is triggered by detection of a solar flare of class >M1.0 is evaluated by comparing forecasts for flare events between 1997 and 2017 with actual SEP data from the GOES spacecraft.

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