Exploring the Behaviour of Foraging Burglary Offenders and Predictive Police Interventions to Prevent and Reduce their Offending

Abstract

Drawn from ecology, the optimal forager predictive policing methodology has been identified as the primary tasking tool used by police services to tackle domestic burglary. Built upon established findings that the target selection behaviour of foraging domestic burglary offenders can be predicted, this thesis examines the physical offending and geographical characteristics of foraging offenders in greater detail. This study evolves established research evidence by drawing upon criminological methods that have potential to increase the approaches effectiveness before testing their applicability in respect of foraging criminals. Ecological research evidence relating to assumptions of foraging behaviour are used to devise theoretical manifestations within criminal behaviour which are subsequently tested for and used to build a theoretical model to combat them.
The study achieves all of this through a number of key research chapters, these include (1) identifying predictive thresholds for linking burglary offences committed by foraging criminals (2) drawing on existing assumptions within ecology the study then seeks to identify their presence within foraging criminals, including the presence of significant crime displacement, and (3) geographical profiling is identified and tested as a potential solution to combat the evasive behaviour of foraging offenders as a response to the increased police presence that the optimal forager model is designed to co-ordinate. Underpinning the study throughout is an examination of the enablers and blockers present that impact upon the effectiveness of such transitions of theory into practice. Overall, the thesis provides new theoretical material by creating a framework of foraging offender typologies. The key practical implications for policing include a model for tackling the identified theoretical foraging typologies to increase the crime prevention and reduction efforts in respect of domestic burglary.