Accuracy of the Logistic EuroSCORE in Predicting Long-Term Survival Following Isolated Aortic Valve Replacement

Abstract

Objective: To assess the ability of the logistic EuroSCORE to predict long- term mortality of patients undergoing isolated Surgical Aortic Valve Replacement (SAVR). Methods: A retrospective review of all patients undergoing SAVR between September 1999, and March 2018 was done. Results: 2018 patients were eligible for inclusion in the study. Patients were grouped according to risk: low (n = 506), intermediate (n = 609), and high-risk (n = 903) depending on their logistic EuroSCORE values. The 30-day mortality of the low- risk group was 0.47%. The one-, five-, 10-, 15-, and 20-year mortality was 1.66%, 4.9%, 14.9%, 24.3%, and 43.8%, respectively. Intermediate-risk group 30-day mortality was 0.66%. The one-, five-, 10-, 15-, and 20-year mortality was 3.28%, 11.9%, 32%, 54.8%, and 82.6%, respectively. The 30-day mortality of the high- risk group was 3.99%. The one-, five-, 10-, 15-, and 20-year mortality was 8.2%, 27%, 55.4%, 78.6%, and 87%, respectively. Conclusion: Our results confirm that the lES is accurate in predicting long-term mortality outcomes of SAVR. This real-world data provides evidence of the potential usefulness of the EuroSCORE to help the heart team and patients decide on appropriate interventions for aortic stenosis.