OGRS 3: The revised Offender Group Reconviction Scale

Abstract

The Offender Group Reconviction Scale (OGRS) is a predictor of re-offending based only on static risks – age, gender and criminal history. It allows probation, prison and youth justice staff to produce predictions for individual offenders even when the use of dynamic risk assessment tools (e.g. The Offender Assessment System (OASys) or Asset) is not possible. It will form the basis of an improved static/dynamic predictor in OASys, and also assist researchers in controlling for expected levels of re-offending when comparing samples. OGRS has been in use by probation staff and corrections researchers since the late 1990s. It is updated from time to time to reflect changing patterns of offending. The new version, OGRS 3, improves on OGRS 2 in several ways. It can be scored more quickly and accurately as it requires fewer, simpler risk factors; its predictions are more valid and cover a more comprehensive measure of re-offending, and it offers a one-year as well as a two-year prediction. OGRS 3 was implemented in the Probation Service in England and Wales in March 2008. This involved changes to various IT systems and circulation of user guidance on producing scores and the known limitations of OGRS. Revisions to Offender Management Tiers and intervention targeting standards will take effect at the beginning of the 2009/10 financial year. Implementation in prisons will also occur early in this financial year. The considerable potential of OGRS 3 will be maximised if: • it is implemented in youth justice, as well as prisons and probation; • it is used, in conjunction with OASys/Asset, to target offenders to interventions effectively; • ongoing training and quality assurance ensures that staff produce and interpret scores correctly