Predicting Reconviction Rates in Northern Ireland

Abstract

The aim of this Bulletin is to inform policy colleagues in their work towards the achievement of Target 3 of the Northern Ireland Office Public Service Agreement which looks at reducing the rate of reconviction in Northern Ireland.<br/><br/>Recent data was used to develop statistical models for predicting the rates of reconviction within two years of receiving a community sentence or release from custody in Northern Ireland. Observed rates can then be compared with the predicted rates.<br/><br/>The models are based on the Offender Group Reconviction Scale (OGRS) developed by Copas and Marshall (1998), and its later modification by Taylor (1999). They assume that the probability of reconviction can be associated with<br/>a small number of influential factors relating to the demographic characteristics and criminal history of the offender.<br/>