Pandemic Continuity Planning: will coronavirus test local authority business continuity plans? A case study of a local authority in the north of England

Abstract

This paper considers the potential impact of the coronavirus on a UK Local Authority’s ability to manage excess deaths, and models the potential impact of a 50% clinical attack rate and a 1% and a 2.5% death rate. The case study was undertaken in 2019 prior to the coronavirus outbreak and was originally focussed on a pandemic flu epidemic, but the findings are relevant to the potential impacts of this new virus.