Soft-Computing Modelling of Seismicity in the Southern Hellenic Arc

Konstantaras, A., Vallianatos, F., Varley, M.R. and Makris, J.P. (2008) Soft-Computing Modelling of Seismicity in the Southern Hellenic Arc. IEEE Geoscience and Remote Sensing Letters, 5 (3). pp. 323-327. ISSN 1545-598X

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This letter investigates the possible coalition of time intervals and patterns in seismic activity during the preparation process of consecutive sizeable seismic events (i.e., M S ges 5.9). During periods of low-level seismic activity, stress processes in the crust accumulate energy at the seismogenic area, while larger seismic events act as a decongesting mechanism that releases considerable amounts of that energy. Monthly mean seismicity rates have been introduced as a tool to monitor this energy management system and to divert this information into an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system. The purpose of the neuro-fuzzy model is to identify and to simulate the possible relationship between mean seismicity rates and time intervals among consecutive sizeable earthquakes. Successful training of the neuro-fuzzy model results in a real-time online processing mechanism that is capable of estimating the time interval between the latest and the next forthcoming sizeable seismic event.

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