A fuzzy logic based system for risk analysis and evaluation within enterprise collaborations

Abstract

This paper addresses risk identification and assessment in network based enterprise collaborations, such as VOs or VEs, and proposes a fuzzy logic based system for risk analysis and evaluation. Risk factors are identified with respect to the four stages in a collaboration’s life cycle: pre-creation, creation, operation and termination. A fuzzy logic based algorithm for collaboration risk evaluation is developed to assess these perceived risk factors. Each risk is described by a probability of risk and a risk impact. Both measures are specified in imprecise linguistic terms and modelled by fuzzy sets. Later the algorithm is embedded into a prototype web service, the Collaboration Risk Evaluator (CRE), implemented to identify risks, provide fuzzy risk assessment and facilitate control of the risk propagation in an enterprise collaboration. We have validated the CRE using test cases. Also, it is integrated in a real life online system supporting SMEs in the automotive industry.