Is it as simple as run more, win more? Influence of running load on match outcome and final league position across nine consecutive English Premier League football seasons

Abstract

Purpose

This study aimed to assess the relationship between running load trends, between teams in a match, match outcomes, and final league positions in the English Premier League (EPL) from 2015/16 to 2023/24 using semi-automated optical tracking systems.

Methods

Data from 3379 games across nine seasons were analysed for total distance (TD), high-intensity distance (HID), high-speed running (HSR), and sprint distance (SprD). Matches were tracked using TRACAB ® and Second Spectrum ® . Spearman's rank correlation coefficient identified correlations between running load and league position. Pearson's correlation was used for home and opposition running load correlations. One-way ANOVA and Cohen's effect size (ES) measured differences in running load between won, drawn, and lost matches.

Results

Small-to-moderate, significant correlations were found between HID (p < 0.001; r s = 0.28), HSR (p = 0.007; r s = 0.20), SprD (p < 0.001; r s = 0.32), and final league position. Large to very large correlations between home and away teams were observed for TD, HID, HSR and SprD (p < 0.001; r = 0.68–0.75). Teams covered more distance (TD, HID, SprD) when they won compared to when they drew or lost (ES:-0.10 to −0.23). Winning teams significantly ran more than losing teams within the same match (TD, HID and SprD; p < 0.001; ES = 0.12–0.29).

Conclusion

Running load has a small-to-moderate correlation to match outcomes and league standing in the EPL. Winning teams tend to run more (TD, HID and SprD), albeit with trivial to small effect sizes, suggesting running outputs are a determining factor in team success.