Robust multiple regimes in growth volatility

Abstract

In this paper, we uncover growth volatility regimes and identify their robust determinants using a large international panel of countries. In doing so, we propose a novel empirical methodology that allows us to simultaneously deal with two key elements of model uncertainty, namely theory uncertainty and parameter heterogeneity, by unifying two recent econometric techniques: Bayesian model averaging and threshold regression. We find ample evidence of parameter heterogeneity and model uncertainty.Our results highlight the role of ethnic fractionalization, institutions, financial development, health, and geography.